A Grand Bargain for America

Now that the election is over, the American people are now repeatedly inundated with media reports regarding the US Economy on the brink of going off of the “fiscal cliff." What's worse, depending on which network you watch, the reporting is framed to inform the viewer as to which party is ultimately responsible for failing to strike a deal. Whether it is the Tea Party faction of the House Republicans, the Obama Administration, John Boehner, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell and/or Grover Norquist, the result of their failure will be the same, we the people pay the ultimate price in inflation, a double dip recession and continued grid lock exacerbating the situation. However, rather than focus on the areas of disagreement, there are a host of areas where compromises can be made in order to grow the economy, rebuild the country and solve many of the nation’s most contentious issues in one “Grand Bargain.” Though these ideas are very general in nature, policy makers should consider these as low lying fruit to a possible cure to the scurvy-like epidemic that all parties, Democrats, Republicans and Mr. Norquist have created. The Basics: Taxes, Dividends, Corporate Rates and Loop Holes Regardless of what Paul Ryan and the Republicans say, when it comes to taxes, President Obama did win a mandate specifically on the tax issue. It was the only issue that he actually articulated and thus did give the American people a clear ‘choice’ between he and Mr. Romney. Moreover, on this particular issue, he won in exit polling of those who voted either for or against him. However, there is room for compromise, which I am sure that even President Obama would agree. Now is not the time to dig in his heels just for the sake of sticking his chest out and saying ‘I am the leader of the free world’ despite what the extreme right wing would have you believe. Individuals – Simplify, broaden and deduction exchanges Rather than raising taxes on individuals making $250,000 or more, raise that number to individuals earning a million and above in personal income(notice I said personal making a clear distinction from a business and what a business owners business earns, not the owner with regards to personal income). Additionally, rather than raising personal income taxes to the tune of the 39% like under President Clinton, make it 38%. Couple this with an extension the Bush era tax cuts for those earning under this amount with one caveat specifically regarding loop holes and deductions. Mitt Romney had a great idea of creating an ‘exchange’ regarding deducations that individuals could select up to a certain amount based on personal income¸ capital gains etc. If you make a million or up, then 25,000 in deductions, and then have a sliding scale downward all the way to the $250,000 bracket. This includes charities, homes, student loans, child credits, religious donations etc. Anyone under 250,000 continues with the Bush era tax cuts, deductions, the AMT etc. Finally, simplify the code ranging from 10 million and up, 1 million to 10 million, 250,000-1 million and 250,000 and below. Of course you create the deduction exchange with a sliding scale based on income, but this will ultimately simplify and broaden the code for everyone. Small Business’, Corporations and Multi-Nationals The mischaracterization of small business with relation to corporations and multi-nationals based on the size of a corporations Board membership is grossly misleading. Secondly, in order to create a more fair and progressive tax rate for business’ the tax base must also be broadened in order to guarantee not only fairness, but that the backbone of America, which is the small mom and pop business remain a thriving entity, and the heart of communities all across this great nation. Like the tax code for individuals, this should also have a sliding scale, and all loop holes removed, which currently grants corporations and multi-nationals the ability to pay the highest paying tax attorneys and accountants to find ways in which to skirt their taxes. This is not only unfair, but in all honesty un-American given the fact that tax dollars fix our roads, fund our schools and military and drive R&D in this country. That’s just a fact. GE paying $1 dollar in taxes is offensive. Period. Currently, I work for a small family owned business in Lower Manhattan while searching for a employment more suitable to my education level, experience and financial commitments. In all honesty, I wish I could assist in taking the fourth generation of this business on to number five. However, like most small family owned business's, highly educated and skilled labor tends to be out of the price of viable employability. This is an unfortunate reality with regards to rising cost of education, student loans and cost of living on people seeking a higher earning potential. My employer is the quintessential family business and can’t offer someone who has obligations like student loans, credit cards and all the trappings that an individual takes on while striving for a high level high priced education. Be that as it may, they are the backbone of their community, and in order to pay their employees a proper living, provide health care and the potential of stability, they must not be taxed into submission which would stifle their growth and possible expansion should they consider to do so. Corporations and multi-nationals face a much different set of issues, mainly languishing beneath one of the world’s highest and most burdensome tax structures, and essentially driving them to set up shop overseas, or offshoring their profits. However, they are also granted so many loop holes that they are also able to skirt the majority of those taxes as well. The solution to this is simple. Drop the tax rate to 28% and eliminate all loop holes. Period. The Revenue Wild Card: Immigration Reform Ok Republicans, here’s your chance to make good with Latino’s, and show collective bi-partisan innovation, compassion and revenue generation in one broad stroke in the least likely of places. Rough estimates put the number of illegal immigrants working in this country at about 10-12 million. Imagine if rather than those individuals working under the table in many times slave like conditions with no rights as workers, they were legitimized by one stroke of the pen generating not only tax revenue from individuals, but from the very business’ that are employing these people in the form of pay roll taxes now that they will be on the books. This would also allow the fed to reduce payroll taxes or business’ due to the increase in payrolls generating revenue. Now, how could this work you ask? Through a joint effort of both immigration and customs and the department of labor, both immigrants in the country illegally and their employers will be given a one year period, or moratorium if you will, in which their employees can apply for green cards given the fact that they can provide their employer, where they live and how long they have been here without any concern of current or retroactive punishment, in exchange for no less than a two year work permit with the possibility of a green card and/or a pathway to citizenship. This area is a cash cow in terms of revenue, however, it will require both parties and the White House the chutzpah go after it. Once the moratorium expires, the federal government must put in place unprecedented penalties for both business’ and individuals who are caught with the old practice. The problem is so widespread at this point, you would essentially have to shut down every restaurant, farm, construction site, landscaping crew etc. However, this will be much easier to enforce should we bring these people from the shadows to legitimacy. Trust me, the overwhelming majority of those here illegally would have no issue with paying taxes. They will take legitimacy above all else. This will show a sign of compassion and understanding on such a level with regards to civil and human rights, that the US will once again be the standard bearer for the world to marvel at. Finally, the holy-grail and, holy cows: Entitlements and Defense Spending After talking ad nauseam about how to generate revenue, we must also make widespread cuts in our two biggest parts of the US Budget, entitlements and the Dept. of Defense. First the Democratic party Holy-Grail so to speak, entitlements. Entitlements can be reduced without having a loss in benefits. There is so much pork written into the policy that is syphoned off by one succubus after another which is inherently corrupt and dishonest. We could start by offering seniors the option of medicare or private insurance. Of course, the majority of seniors would stick with medicare, regardless those who choose to use private insurance, not to mention the conderation of phasing out high income earners from eligibility, would apy immediate dividend. Next, continuing the mechanisms put in place with regards to wellness programs, digitizing records, and a host of other areas can save billions. It will just take an honest overview, and commitment to making the programs solvent. Next is Defense, the Republican holy cow. The fact is, with the modernization of our military, the conclusion of two wars and the upgrading of useless dated equipment, we have a chance to nip the military industrial complex in the butt, all the while creating jobs, continue to lead in technological innovation (who do you think really created modern telecommunications, Al Gore?) and remain the most respected if not feared military in the history of human kind. The beauty of this scenario is that we can do this cheaper, quicker and in the very near future. In actuality, this is something that the military requested in their own budget, and in fact, then Defense Secretary Gates said the cuts could go much further. The culmination of cuts to these programs, as well as a consolidation and combination of various overlapping agencies, this country could be put on the path to fiscal responsibility and balance before the end of the year. The real question is, will the powers that be execute, or continue with the status quo that created the problem in the first place? We will know soon enough.

India, Pakistan and Afghanistan: Kumbaya thru a Web of Chaos

The recent bilateral agreements between India and Afghanistan, as well as India and Pakistan, give hope to a prosperous and secure future for South and Southwest Asia. However, the hurdles that all three nations must clear remain high, and given the twisted web of historical dysfunction, a task that remains daunting at best.

The economic and security agreement between Afghanistan and India, according to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, signifies not only a “bold strategic move on behalf of India”, but an “acceleration of India asserting itself as a possible leader in what to this point remained a region without a leader.” Additionally, the tentative agreement between India and Pakistan regarding each other as most favored nation trade status, coupled with the $1.2 billion investment in Afghanistan thru 2013, are positive signs that all three regional players are utilizing regional confidence building measures bilaterally, beginning with economic cooperation to achieve long-term regional development and peace. It also signifies that relations between India and Pakistan have begun to thaw behind the scenes, which is the only way the India-Afghan agreement could exist. However, there are still many hurdles in the areas of security that threaten to not just complicate matters, but can dismantle any short term gains for the long term future of the region.

The injection of Indian military and intelligence officials into the Afghan theatre initially raises concern about conflict between India and Pakistan, as well as Pakistan and Afghanistan. The mistrust that the three nation states share towards one another undoubtedly is far more difficult to overcome than just agreements on paper. Let us not forget that a majority of militant groups based in the region for decades had one sole purpose; to fight the Indian military in an attempt to drive them out of the Kashmir Valley. In fact, the resistance by the Pakistani authority to reign in terror organizations who continued to receive unofficial aid and support via the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) continues to exacerbate the mistrust of both India and Afghanistan that Pakistan will become a reliable regional partner. The two agreements India has achieved given the historical antagonism towards the two Islamic countries, as well as a broadening relationship between India and the United States, continues to serve as a coming out party of good will and greater international assertiveness emanating from New Delhi.

Realistically, India finally positioned itself so as to not just be perceived as a ‘pivotal state’ or ‘emerging market’, but having an ability to enter an exclusive club of nation states who have can lead and impact a region and the global community through the implementation of economic aid and material security support. On the surface, this is a marked change in the perception of India externally, whereas the reality internally, much like China, has an extremely underdeveloped and poverty stricken populace throughout the country. In fact, India, Afghanistan, and especially Pakistan have yet to tackle their own internal issues and struggles, especially when it comes to terrorism, security and poverty. Oddly enough, despite the micro level internal issues, the questions regarding the macro policy discussions of the region are now thrust to the forefront. The most important question being: Does India have the political will and patience to see their regional venture into a leadership role all the way through, or will regional dysfunction, backbiting and corruption result in the typical outcome of falling far short of expectations?

Given the two scenarios and how high the stakes are for the region as a whole, especially India, which is taking the greatest risk with two typically unreliable partners, this once and for all is a sign that the region is taking the necessary steps to combat the internal cancers of terrorism and poverty. Moreover, announcement of the agreement between India and Pakistan as favored nation status regarding trade will go a long way to alleviate tensions after six decades of antagonism between two nuclear states. This antagonism has continued for decades due to dysfunctional policy-making, cronyism, and corruption, ultimately resulting in a false sense of reality with regards to their importance as emerging markets and global players, all the while allowing China to surpass them with ease and superiority despite greater hardships with regards to poverty alleviation and being a non-democratic society. The inclusion of economic and social development as a fundamental criterion of the new agreement between India and Afghanistan in the end will bring Pakistan into the fold on security issues, raising the prospects of regional economic prosperity to unforeseen heights rather than continued uncertainty.

As previously stated, the terror networks that need to be dismantled and ultimately eliminated by the Pakistani government have fought against the Indian military for decades. During this time, Pakistan has watched India average an annual economic growth of 8% over the past decade, while Pakistan at 3% growth at best, and has regressed to the point of near economic collapse. This has forced Pakistan to reform its thinking with regards to their conflict with India, especially in the region of Kashmir. Moreover, now that Pakistani military and intelligence officials realize they have lost control over the terror networks, they have quickly come to realize that Islamic militancy is only beholden to a twisted version of Islam deep rooted in nihilistic philosophy.

The considerable damage and harm inflicted upon the two regional partners necessary for Pakistan’s long-term future, India and Afghanistan, continue to receive attacks with ISI protection. To add insult to injury, these same groups now threaten the internal stability of Pakistan. Finally, the militants’ coordinated effort against the US military continues to cause incredible strain with the United States, which once served as Pakistan’s largest economic donor. Pakistan now finds its relationship with the US at considerable risk, and the billions in economic appropriations possibly terminated by the US Congress.

However, Pakistan’s self-inflicted problem believe it or not opens the door for India to fill that vacuum the US will leave in its wake. A vacuum that just months earlier appeared to be filled by China through a series of agreements with Pakistan. One agreement in particular, regards the construction of a Chinese naval base on the Pakistani coast of the Indian Ocean. However, India has a significant comparative advantage in this regard due to their cultural ties with both Pakistan and Afghanistan that the US and coalition forces could never achieve. The disputes between India, Pakistan and Afghanistan are more like an argument between Cane and Abel rather than two differing social, cultural and religious paradigm. This does not mean it will be easier to say the least.

The blossoming partnership between India and Afghanistan has maintained a steady growth since the beginning of reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan following the fall of the Taliban. India is the sixth largest donor to Afghanistan, promising nearly $1.2 billion in aid thru 2013. This assistance has laid the groundwork for trust and familiarity with a regional face and footprint in Afghanistan. Moreover, this will free the people of Afghanistan and the region of the fear that the intentions of the United States are to permanently establish themselves as a regional hegemon. Afghans will now develop alongside a regional partner whose intentions are to see them develop, but will allow them to do so on their own terms. There is a new found belief that if this initiative is successful, it would help eliminate a host of other issues shared throughout the region.

Fortunately for Afghanistan, they have gained a strategic partner not only from the region, but will gain incredible knowledge in the ability to fight specific militant groups from Pakistan due to the Indian military and intelligence services familiarity. Additionally, Indian officers will gain knowledge via interrogation of captured militants coming across the border, and will be able to find the direct linkages between Pakistan and the insurgency on both fronts. This presents an even greater possibility of heightened tensions between the regional players, given the necessity for border control between Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, it will open the door for Pakistan to have a wedge in which they can clean house on the militants in their backyard. Coincidentally, it will enhance their negotiating position with both India and Afghanistan as a reliable partner to combat terrorism and Islamic extremism. Most importantly, it will establish greater trust in regional economic and trade initiatives in the future.

India’s clever usage of terming their agreement with Afghanistan as “capacity building” for the Afghan National Security Forces means that, following the scheduled US pull-out of the Afghanistan theatre by 2013, the Indian military will fill that void based on the terms of this agreement in the security areas. Though it is not stated specifically as such, it is obvious that this is the intention despite being initiated bilaterally between the three nations, rather than as a joint initiative. This will show Afghanistan that they and have a trusted regional friend who also benefits from seeing Afghanistan grow economically and socially. Moreover, this will give India a bargaining chip with Pakistan.

Cross border trade on the AfPak border is devastated by the continuing conflict and would relieve considerable economic strain for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is the only way that Pakistan has found the India-Afghanistan agreement remotely palatable. Be that as it may, it must be noted that Pakistan’s objections to the agreement were not as vociferous as expected. India’s only reasoning for taking such considerable risks on both the economic and security front is economically motivated. The declaration of India and Pakistan’s favored nation trade rights just one week following the Indian Afghanistan security and development package signified that regional parties are communicating, and that these agreements did not come as much of a surprise.


The Strategic Partnership Agreement between India and Afghanistan is confirmation that New Delhi is willing to invest in the region in order to develop greater trade advantages through development initiatives. India, with a commitment of $1.2 billion through 2013, is already the sixth largest donor to Afghanistan. Coupled with the recent tentative agreement with Pakistan, it shows the ability of India to successfully implement more of a carrot and stick approach with regional partners who were once perceived adversaries. India’s involvement in diverse development projects in infrastructure, education, and agriculture will pay dividends in easing the minds of the Afghan population who may side more with Pakistan than India when it comes to understanding their particular issues, especially among the Pashtun population. The agreement signed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in New Delhi goes beyond development and humanitarian assistance, and may test average Afghans who view India as nothing more than an opportunist nation.

Finally, India will also assist “as mutually determined, in the training, equipping and capacity building programs for the Afghan National Security Forces.” In addition, the two countries will hold a regular strategic dialogue “with the aim of intensifying mutual efforts towards strengthening regional peace and security.” Significantly, two side agreements were also signed for the development of minerals and natural gas in Afghanistan, which is said to hold mineral deposits worth $1 trillion. If all this is a reflection of friendly ties between India and Afghanistan, it comes with the knowledge of the dysfunctional nature of geopolitics in the region. More importantly, it shows a desire to finally move forward out of the chaos.

Pakistan has responded to the agreement between India and Afghanistan with calculated skepticism, but one has to wonder if Pakistan was really in the dark about the agreement given the timing of the economic and trade agreement Pakistan announced with India. If all continues to go without a hitch, we may soon see a real ‘kumbaya’ moment between the three regional partners. More importantly, this may signify the end of terror groups’ ability to inflict damage causing strains to the tripartite partnership. At the very least, the region is moving at lightning speed to alleviate economic and development shortcomings. Once the security issues are handled, the sky is the limit.

Wikileaks Leaked US Cables Reveals Truth About Kashmir

Recently released US State Department cables by Wikileaks underscores how India and Pakistan have kept the conflict alive via financial collusion with separatists, mainstream politicians and militant groups, with the exception of one separatist who continually stated that the “money-game” is the real reason the conflict still exists today.

The most recent cache of US State Department cables released by Wikileaks, specifically the cables from the New Delhi Embassy, paints a clear picture of how India and Pakistan have kept the Kashmir conflict alive and well for a myriad of reasons. The direct involvement of both countries’ government, military and intelligence apparatuses in the six-decade-old conflict led to the senseless killing of over 100,000 lives, not to mention disrupting the communal harmony that once led to rock anthems about Kashmir’s ephemeral beauty, and known simply as ‘Shangri-La’.

In 2006, then US Ambassador to India David Mulford wrote a classified cable titled “Kashmiri Politics as Filthy as Dal Lake”, along with a host of other significant cables specifically regarding the conflict. Amb. Mulford stated that “Corruption cuts across party lines and most Kashmiri’s take it as an article of faith that politically-connected Kashmiri’s take money from both India and Pakistan.” Mulford added that, “money from Pakistani and Indian intelligence agencies and from Saudi and other foreign extremists has further distorted Kashmiri politics, incentivized leaders to perpetuate the conflict, and perverted state and central government institutions.” As someone who worked on the issue at the Kashmiri American Council, I know first hand how money, power and influence has directly undermined the prospects of peace.

The unspoken truths commonly understood by those working on the issue from the inside, and confirmed via the released cables, are that two human tragedies and development complications exist due to the childish nature both sides continue to play. First, the average Kashmiri lives every day in fear not knowing if the next time he or she steps out their door, it may be their last. Moreover, that the person who will ultimately kill, rape or torture them may or may not where an authorized uniform, but certainly will not suffer any form of prosecution or arrest for doing so. In fact, they may even get a bonus if they are lucky.

The dysfunction created by India and Pakistan resulted in an insurrection communally cleansing the Valley of the Pandit population over a rigged election in 1987. The result of this to the present day is the death of over 100,000 Kashmiri’s, both Muslim and Hindu, thousands of which are buried in mass graves. Then there are the billion plus South Asians in general, who are continually held hostage to the threat of war, terrorism or retaliatory communal killings throughout both countries outside of the Kashmir region. Ultimately what it shows is that both India and Pakistan view any casualties of the conflict as ‘collateral damage’, and in many cases more dollars to be secured for the military industrial complex. The irony of all this is that the one person who started and led the insurrection, comes off looking like the only non-state actor not on the corruption dole.

Surprisingly, Ambassador Mulford acknowledges that India admittedly rigged the Kashmiri elections in 1987. This resulted in Yasin Malik, Chairman of the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front and a pollster for the party who lost the election, to pick up arms, and wage war against not only the Indian Military, but unleashed his wrath on the Pandit population as well. This was accomplished via direct training, funding and logistical support by the Pakistani military, and more importantly the ISI. However, the past fifteen years Mr. Malik has engaged in his own form of ‘truth and reconciliation’ by visiting the refugee camps in Jammu, asking for forgiveness and for the Pandits to return to the Valley. Finally, given his background as a militant, he has served as an interlocutor of sorts between militants and the two governments. It must be acknowledged that funding and support via the ISI has continued from Pakistan, where militants seem to choose between fighting the Indians or going to Afghanistan and fighting their ever expanding Jihad.

In actuality, Mr. Malik has engaged in a six-year campaign to root the corruption out of Kashmir. His saving grace from steering clear of the corruption results from two key aspects; he’s secular and he’s from extremely humble beginnings. His ability to maintain legitimacy and relevance in Kashmiri politics stems from one reason; he has actually fought for his people and not just stood behind the walls of privilege like his counterparts in both the mainstream and separatist movements.

Having worked on the Kashmir issue for the last six years either as a government relation liaison, or as an independent analyst, I can say without a doubt the US Government fully understands and appreciates the twisted reality of the Kashmir problem. Additionally, the US Government understands the hypersensitivity that India has towards third party intervention due to it’s own complicity in corruption, rape and murder inside Kashmir. Unfortunately, the economic relationship between the United States and India appears for now to be trumping the ability to apply the necessary pressure to force India and Pakistan to finally bring the conflict to its rightful conclusion.

I spent six weeks on the ground in Kashmir in 2008, visiting with Yasin Malik, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Syed Ali Geelani. All three gave contrasting views, and in hindsight, the analysis from the former Ambassador was spot on. With the release of the cables from former Ambassador Mulford, one could only hope that both India and Pakistan will begin to see the writing on the wall. Otherwise the cables to be released may find some of the military and civilian leadership spending some time in Holland at the ICC.

Mass grave sights in Kashmir offer only one solution to India and Pakistan, Truth and Reconciliation.

The recent acknowledgement by authorities of the mass graves discovered in Indian Administered Kashmir over three years ago by Dr. Angana Chatterji and her colleagues initially brought hope to a region that the truth of the last 60 years in this troubled region will finally come to light. Additionally, recognition that the graves are in fact civilians who have “disappeared”, and not what the Indian Military claimed as “foreign combatants from Pakistan” by not only local officials, but groups such as Amnesty International, as well as Hindu based groups in both India and the Kashmir region as well. The recognition by Hindu based organizations not only grants a greater sense of legitimacy, but highlights a fundamental complexity that the outside world continues to misunderstand with regards to the historical and ethnic complexities of the region. In fact, the mass graves reveal that local issues are at the heart of the matter, and that to some, that a terrorist from Pakistan and Indian Military Personnel are one in the same. It is through this recognition along communal lines that South African style ‘truth and reconciliation’ may be the ultimate way forward to solving this six decade long conflict.

In South Africa, it was through the process of truth and reconciliation that peace was possible between the sacked Afrikaan Government, and the newly elected Nelson Mandela government. More recently in Iraq, ‘truth and reconciliation’ between Shia and Sunni tribes initiated by General David Patreus, had a greater impact on lowering sectarian violence in Iraq than the overly publicized troop surge of the Bush Administration. This format is possible if utilized through the proper cultural methodology, the questions is, are the governments of both India and Pakistan interested in such a proposal, and admitting unfortunate truths of state sanctioned terrorism, militant support, rape and torture?

Kashmir in and of itself remains a political problem created by forces by both Indian and Pakistani Governments. However, bringing the Dogra’s or Pandits of Jammu (Hindu), Hanji’s of the Valley (Muslim) and Ladakhi’s from Ladakh (Buddhist) together to reconcile their differences will force the hands of Indian and Pakistani authorities to resolve the issue to benefit the society as a whole. There is a shared history and culture recognized by all three communities and a desire to reconcile their differences. A truth and reconciliation format presents the best possible way to free the Kashmiri from differences created at the nation state level, and restoring the communal harmony that once existed prior to the uprising of 1989. The only way to begin this process however, both India and Pakistan must undue the revisionist history both sides continue to propagate, and the truth must finally be disclosed, and perpetrators must come forward with their crimes that continue to cause millions to suffer.

First of all, it must be recognized that both the Indian Government and the Muslims in the Valley who took up their arms and essentially “ethnically cleansed” the Valley of Pandits must be agreed upon. Only from this starting point will the Indian Government find an acceptable beginning, rather than the continued mantra by Kashmiri Muslims that Indian military personnel perpetrated the only crimes against civilians. Next, the Indian Government must cease in it’s continued efforts to frame the conflict in the international media and community as a conflict along communal lines, and not the result of a rigged election, which is actually the case. The Hindu population was essentially forced to flee to refugee camps in Jammu, which the State of India now subsidizes in an effort to keep the two communities from reconciling. Jammu-Kashmir Liberation Front Chairman Yasin Malik, a secular Muslim leader in the Valley continuously visits the camps promising the safety of the Pandit community, and calling the lack of Pandit presence in the Valley a “cultural void that can only be filled by the Pandits themselves.” However, Hindu Nationalists continue to propagate Mr. Malik as a Wahabbi demon wanting to kill all non-Muslims, and force all of Kashmir to live under Sharia law. Mr. Malik was a major part of the Pandit cleansing during the late 80’s and early 90’s, however he has initiated his own form of truth and reconciliation by visiting the camps, apologizing to family member, especially those he directly impacted in an extremely heinous manner.

On the flip side, the Indian Military must come clean not only about the graves, but address the issue of “half-widows”, assassinations, disappearances, rapes and killings that leadership continues to rule out as “encounters.” Recently, one such false encounter took place where the Indian Military claimed to have killed a Hizbul Mujahideen leader turned out to be a Hindu civilian once the encounter was investigated by outside investigators. Moreover, the fact that multiple gravesites continue to be discovered and upon closer inspection, are filled with the bodies of children and women, rather than supposed militants from Pakistan, also continue to inflame local populations. However, rather than engage in violent encounters with the military, which would be the supposed action of a population who continues to be accused of supporting and participating in militancy, they engage in non-violent protest as they have over the past six years.

To some, this idea may just be viewed as another pie in the sky idea from an outsider. However, as someone who has worked closely with the many of the separatist leaders in the Kashmir region, as well as initiated dialogue between the people of Kashmir and the Indian and Pakistani Government, I know this is possible. It will take the ability of both sides to admit fault, but accept the responsibility of the pain they have inflicted on a population whose only crime is being ethnically Kashmiri. As more graves are uncovered, truth and reconciliation will be the only way forward to finally bring this six decade long conflict to its rightful conclusion.

Finally, It’s Hillary’s Turn

Global terrorism emanating from Pakistan, a nuclear Iran, and the military and economic ascension of China are issues that we read and hear about every day. In the case of India, they must deal with these issues as a bordering nation to all three. Next week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will attend the US-India Strategic Dialogue, a series of meetings that she also presided over last year in Washington DC regarding security issues that both nations share. Fortunately for Sec. Clinton, her unique gift of leadership and strength, combined with seldom-matched intellectual prowess, affords her an uncanny ability to maneuver the complicated issues of what may be the most complicated region. Her assertiveness as a leader demands others to think outside the box, and inspire everyone in the room to address real problems with realistic solutions, and not just in the hypothetical. It is this ability that Sec. Clinton must use to not only kick start upcoming peace talks between India and Pakistan, but also lay the foundation that can lead to its rightful conclusion.

This past weekend, Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh said at a South Asian Regional Cooperation Conference that, “South Asia cannot realize its full potential until and unless the region solves its differences peacefully and develops the culture of solving our problems themselves.” The main issue with this statement is that India and Pakistan have consistently refused any form of mediation or facilitation by a third party, preventing any possibility of a problem solving culture to develop. However, Sec. Clinton has the grace to not only facilitate, but also to allow India and Pakistan a belief that they ended their seven decade feud on their own. More importantly, India could finally emerge as the legitimate counterweight to China that India assumes is already a reality. Finally, India can become the powerful regional ally the US must have for a myriad of security and economic reasons.

As the relationship between the US and Pakistan continues to sour, the relationship between India and the US continues to expanded considerably. Moreover, Sec. Clinton will enjoy greater flexibility to assist in addressing issues such as Kashmir, water rights and nuclear arms reduction due to the recent Obama Administration announcement or the suspension of $800 million in military assistance to Pakistan which Pakistan typically used to strengthen it’s border with India and fund militant groups, rather than the intended purpose of fighting terrorists and the Taliban. No longer can India point to US assistance as being part of the problem. Finally, the recent killings of Osama bin Laden and Ilya Kashmiri by the US inside Pakistan also tells India that the ‘US understands the terror state that is Pakistan’, and will unapologetically do what it takes to rid the world, and more importantly the region of this cancer. Nobody appreciates this more than India; except for maybe Pakistan behind closed doors.

In addition to dealing with the Pakistan v. India conundrum, Sec. Clinton must also address Pakistan’s quickly emerging relationship with regional rival China. Make no mistake; China is India’s biggest threat, not Pakistan. A fact that China has gone above and beyond to display much to India’s chagrin. In the past month China and Pakistan have strengthened their relationship with announcements of Chinese construction of hydroelectric damn projects in Pakistan, military assistance and sales of fighter jets and naval ships, possible Chinese bases on the Indian Ocean and civilian nuclear power assistance. Moreover, reports of Chinese military personnel roaming the Pakistan-India border, in addition to roaming the India-China border has also raised eyebrows. You see, there is a flipside to India replacing Pakistan as the United States prime regional ally; China is attempting to replace the void left by the US in Pakistan. As one security analyst recently said, “If conflict were to break out between India and Pakistan, what would China’s reaction be?”

Fortunately, the timeliness of Sec. Clinton’s visit just before peace talk are set to resume between the two rivals in New Delhi the following week couldn’t be better. Coupled with all three nations attending the annual ASEAN conference in Bali, Sec. Clinton will have an ability to lay the groundwork through possible shuttle diplomacy given Pakistan’s eagerness to try and recoup some of the US assistance it so desperately needs. In addition, this may also be the counterpunch the US and the region as a whole need to China’s recent assertiveness in South and Southeast Asia. Secretary Clinton would have an ability to use the resumption of funding as an incentive for Pakistan to accept some of the terms put forth by India with regards to their concerns over the water issue, as well as nuclear safeguards. Additionally, Sec. Clinton would have an ability to present new and possibly logical solutions to deciding the fate of Kashmir that is acceptable to all parties, including the Kashmiri people. Through incentives as well as a fresh voice with new ideas, India and Pakistan can gain on a number of levels via US Assistance, yet an ability to claim ownership in resolving their own bilateral issues.

The real question remains, can India and Pakistan be reliable partners in a region beset by dysfunction and failed promises. Once and for all, the table is set for Sec. Clinton to finally emerge from the Presidential shadows that have cast over her by both her husband and current boss. Finally, it’s Hillary’s turn.

The death of Ilyas Kashmiri Vastly Exceeds Osama bin Laden

The impact of the killing of Pakistani militant/terrorist Ilyas Kashmiri by a US Predator drone strike paid far more dividend than the killing of Osama bin Laden. Of course, the symbolism of killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan remains symbolically more significant. Regardless, the direct impact resulting in communication disruption and rooting out the poisons within the Pakistani military and intelligence circle are only just beginning. The killing of Kashmiri dealt an incredible blow to Al Qaeda, as well as a host of other terrorist groups located in Pakistani Administered Kashmir and the tribal areas. The recent arrest of Pakistani Brigadier General Ali Khan, and the interrogation of four other Generals had far less of a connection to bin Laden’s phone, than to Kashmiri and the terrorist network who enjoyed 30 years of financial, military and tactical support from the military and ISI.

Until his death earlier this month, Kashmiri was well known primarily in South Asia, especially India and Pakistan. Kashmiri hailed from Pakistani Administered Kashmir, and had a long history of working intimately with what later became Al Qaeda during the 1980’s in Afghanistan as a member of the Special Forces in the Pakistani military. Once the Soviets were repelled from Afghanistan, Kashmiri went back to Kashmir and began waging jihad against the Indian Military in what he viewed as a “liberation movement” for the Kashmiri people from Indian Rule. It is this connection that spans over three decades that is the biggest blow to Al Qaeda and the Taliban, and may in fact be the tipping point for both the US in Afghanistan, as well as Indian and Pakistani relations.

Kashmiri during the 80’s and early 90’s was the logistical master of shuffling young fighters to training camps in both Pakistan and Afghanistan for “on the job training” against the Russians, and to be played out on the battlefield against India. The importance was he not only was able to transport young fighters for training against India, he established the connections and links necessary with villages and tribesman in the mountainous regions ensuring safe passage. This network continues today, but with the killing of Kashmiri, his network appears already in free fall in Pakistan, which will have a greater impact in Afghanistan as movements become of greater challenge through the tribal areas. The people who provided aid and comfort did so primarily to their relationship with Kashmiri, and not just tacit support for a militant movement.

The connection between bin Laden’s ability to hide in Abbottabad under the nose of retired military and intelligence officers was of no coincidence. Kashmiri had the connections and ability to call in favors knowing that questions would never be asked. Kashmiri was instrumental in the Mumbai attacks, which gained him great favor within the establishment community. Despite the Pakistani militaries fighting with the Taliban, everyone knows that the real danger in the mind of the military and intel community is India.

However, just this past week Indian officials paid Pakistan a visit in what was viewed as a precursor to renewed talks between the leaders of the two sub-continent rivals. I asked both former Pakistani, Indian and Kashmiri officials if they thought the death of Ilyas Kashmiri would have a direct impact on relations between India and Pakistan, and most of them just said “of course.” One former Pakistani official took things one step further and said, “not only could this lead a major breakthrough for Indian and Pakistani relations, but the death of Kashmiri will turn the tides once and for all for the Americans in Afghanistan.”

There is no question the recent decision by US President Barack Obama to reduce troops in Afghanistan was directly impacted by this high level target. Of course, the US Generals wanted to keep more boots on the ground. However, we must remember that Generals think in terms for what is happening today. The Taliban’s continued ability to engage and fight with the same passion and fury as they always have. What US Intelligence officials in the region feel, is that there will be a decrease in numbers, and far less traffic along the boarder regions. The Pakistani military will be much more alert and assertive when encountering militants attempting to move along the region. On the flip side of that coin, Taliban and al Qaeda fighters are becoming much more reluctant to travel through the region to various safe havens because they are being taken away one by one.

In the end, the death of Ilyas Kashmiri will go down as one of the biggest victories, as well as the possible trigger to India and Pakistan finally resolving their 70-year-old differences. With arrests within the Pakistani intelligence and military community sure to come, militant activity on the Indian border. Additionally, this will open the door for India to finally begin removing her 500-700,000 military troops occupying Indian Administered Kashmir, especially in urban areas. Finally, al Qaeda and the Taliban lost their regional broker who provided safe passage and support from top ranking military and intelligence officials. I am sure that numbers in Osama bin Laden’s phone helped a bit in being able to find out who knew, and how high up the power chain knowledge of his whereabouts went. However, in just three weeks since that US drone strike in early June, already the death of Ilyas Kashmiri vastly exceeds the death of Osama bin Laden.

Hooray for Ai Weiwei

For the past three months, the story that received the most copy regarding China was the detention of artist and activist Ai Weiwei. Ai Weiwei’s skyrocketing popularity and becoming the darling of the western media as the poster child of Chinese internal dissent had western governments and human rights organizations calling for his immediate release and/or charges for the reason of his detention. This continued fascination with Chinese human rights policies and detention of homegrown detractors continues to clog up the headlines in the most reputable newspapers around the world. I am not suggesting that the attention Ai Weiwei’s detention received was not justifiable, nor deserving of the international outcry it has received the past three months. However, the real stories regarding China and the impact their strategic moves of late will have on over a billion people, and not just one activist, are being passed over without a thought by op-ed and senior foreign correspondents leaving a general audience without knowledge of the strategic gains China has racked up over the three month Ai Weiwei saga.

I must confess I have always believed the most important stories are those five to ten line blurbs that most readers casually glance over without understanding the considerable impact those stories may have in the not so distant future. China has aggressively pursued alliances within the region and made moves that could only make the greatest of global hegemonic powers proud. In fact, one almost would wonder if Chinese leaders actually calculated the amount of focus the Ai Weiwei detention would receive, creating a nice diversion to a series of regional strategic moves they were beginning to embark upon, and to some within international security circles, very provocative to say the least.

Here are a few in case you missed them:

China assisting DPRK utilizing it’s own model of growth

The first story should come as no surprise given the relationship between China and North Korea. However, this feel good story of China actually helping their troubled neighbor to the south open a series of economic processing zones (EPZ’s) with the intention of assisting the DPRK with loosening market restraints, and giving citizens access to viable employment in a variety of sectors. Additionally, this may also be part of a “carrot and stick” approach to the DPRK, as well as providing the DPRK with economic growth and possible ways in which an authoritarian regime can relax market constraints without jeopardizing the status quo enjoyed by ruling elites.

China for the past two decades has grown through the use of EPZ’s established by western corporations via subcontractors generally from Taiwan who had a clear understanding of how local politics in China worked, and the ins and outs regarding environmental protections and a lack of workers rights. Regardless of the old argument regarding working conditions and the environmental degradation in the countryside where these zones were established, China would not be the world’s second largest economy without EPZ’s. It is ironic that the Chinese would seek to solve some of the DPRK’s economic and employment problems through such measures. However, the same model was used by both the US and Japan in South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Singapore with great success. Who better than China to understand what steps an authoritarian regime must take in order to loosen the economic stranglehold and growth on the economy at home? On the other hand, China must also be responsible not to allow that growth to lead to an expansion over the DPRK’s controversial nuclear program, rather than the tradition laissez faire approach. I would only hope that such measures are structured into the agreement, but like most agreements involving China, one can only speculate given the lack of transparency the Chinese authority prefers to conduct international affairs.

Old problems continue to surface

Over the past week alone, tensions in the South China Sea continue to escalate between China and Vietnam, and China and the Philippines. For those of you unfamiliar with the South China Sea, it contains some of the highest oil, mineral and natural gas reserves, not to mention a robust fishing area for regional nations as well. Despite decades of third party intervention, working groups hosted by the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), the rights to these reserves continue to be a matter of debate regarding whose sovereign claims over areas such as the Spratly and Parcel islands are legitimate. Recently the Vietnamese government made a plea for third party intervention due to China’s continued muscle flexing. In an interesting move, the Chinese government issued a warning to the US to stay out of it’s “internal matters”, which according to one DoD official was “surprising given we have not really thrown our weight behind Vietnam with regard to the Spratly Islands, and have long held the stance that regional parties should sort out maritime matters on their own, through regional bodies such as ASEAN or the UN.” However, the stance takes an about face when a much closer ally comes under threat like the Philippines.

The South China Sea maritime issues are nothing new, however the level of escalation between the regional states was a matter of surprise. The fact that China now finds itself in maritime disputes with all of her neighbors at one time displays the confidence that China has in its regional prowess, if not regional hegemonic aspirations. China knows that without third party intervention, there is not one nation state, with the exception of possibly Japan, that has the ability to stand up to China economically or militarily. It will be interesting to see how this scenario plays out for Vietnam and the Philippines, as it may serve notice for what is about to come in the future as China seeks to secure more assets necessary for long-term sustainable growth.

Firmly establishing South Asian footprint, and forcing India’s hand

For decades China has in many ways been a silent player when it comes to security, development and economics in South Asia. Many have little idea that China is actually a player in the Kashmir dispute. Of course, remaining innocuous regarding highly contentious issues is China’s specialty, and when it comes to issues in South Asia; China mastered navigating the minefield of India, Pakistan and Kashmir. However, recent agreements between China and Pakistan, as well as other provocative what ifs raised in international media with regards to Pakistan’s invitation to China to establish naval bases on it’s Indian Ocean coast have thrust this once silent member front and center.

This outreach comes on the heels of some landmark agreements between the Sino-Pak relationship. First, China agreed to provide 50 fighter jets to Pakistan following the killing of Osama bin Laden in a move that showed China was all to eager to fill the void the US would leave given the strains between to the two “strategic” partners. In addition to providing the fighter jets, Pakistan would allow China port access for oil exports via a pipeline from Iran, as well as the possibility of establishing naval bases in order to serve as protection for the increase of traffic of Chinese oil freighters and naval ships. Next, was the establishment of a civilian nuclear agreement between China and Pakistan that has everyone guessing the contents to the framework of the agreement, despite both sides expressing that we take the two parties at their word that this involves to civilian reactors, and that’s it. In addition to the two nuclear reactors, a $15 billion dollar proposal is close to agreement to dam the Jhelum River, a river that is a deep source of contention between India and Pakistan with regards to water rights, as well as hydroelectric energy generation for the sub-continent. The one positive may be that India and Pakistan will now hold legitimate peace talks seeking solutions to their 70 year old disputes, rather that just the occasional photo-op of a meeting.

No more noise please

So as we take a look back at the past couple of months and realize the level of activity China has taken in Northeast, Southeast and South Asia, it should come as no surprise that those in the economic and security realms find it surprising the most attention being paid by the media was on Ai Weiwei. Of course, the portly charismatic artist does make for good copy, especially the way in which he flaunts his spotlight to bring a clearer picture to the outside world with regards to China’s continued policy of silencing any and all internal dissent. For this I am happy of his release and must shout a “Hip Hip Hooray for Ai Weiwei!”

Prior to the Arab Spring

The attention brought by the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Iran and Yemen has captivated a global audience mainly due to the generally non-violent nature in which the protestors are demanding their democratic rights. Of course, there are exceptions such as Libya and Yemen. In reality, western fascination derives primarily from the stance of non-violence by the majority of the protesters, and their refusal to be co-opted by violent and/or Islamist groups. After years of media attention regarding conflict in the Middle East, and the framing of any movement in a Muslim based society as violent or Islamist, we as a society were routinely led to believe this was just “their” way of trying to resolve a dispute. Just as our society assumes that dictatorships are what “they” are used to, because well, that’s Islam isn’t it? Well, the answer is no, and as we know most of the dictators in the Middle East have enjoyed a cozy relationship with the United States Government (Syria and Iran being the exception). I have to admit, as someone who has followed democratic movements for the better part of a decade, I was pleasantly surprised as well. However, I have witnessed a non-violent Muslim based movement up close and personal since 2005, but not in the Middle East, and it’s about to resume once the snows have melted.

In Indian administered Jammu and Kashmir, non-violent protests have occurred every summer since 2006. The first major protest organized by a former militant turned peace activist Muhammad Yasin Malik. Mr. Malik organized what he called his “Safri-e-Azadi” campaign, which at times included torch lit processions through the Valley of Kashmir in defiance of an enforced curfew. The turn out was incredible. What Mr. Malik did not realize was that rather than garnering popularity for his own personal movement, he was inspiring a younger generation to defy their conditions and in many ways the dysfunctional leadership of the separatist movements and political parties. This younger generation had found their voice and the ability to speak out for their beliefs, wants and desires with one major condition to their cause, non-violence. Additionally, their utilization of social media since 2008, to the world inspired and served as a manual for those in Tehran, and later the Arab Spring.

The tipping point that solidified for the protestors that they could sustain their non-violence movement occurred on August 11, 2006. 55-year-old Sheikh Abdul Aziz, another leader of a different separatist organization was killed by Indian paramilitary troops while participating in a peaceful public demonstration against the ‘economic blockade’ of the Kashmiri Muslims being enforced by militant Indian Hindu groups allegedly with the tacit support of the Indian government. Due primarily to the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, an investigation was not conducted as to why the Sheikh was shot during a non-violent protest that was immediately posted on youtube just days following. I was interviewed just days after on Al-Jazeera as a regional expert, and was asked if I thought the Kashmiri protesters will respond with violence since one of their leaders were killed? They were surprised with my quick and assertive response of “No.” You see, I have seen leaders detained, beaten, shot, exiled and the like over the past few years, and no matter how much press the separatists seek, they are not the ones behind the protests, it’s a handful of brave young Kashmiri’s who have been coordinating and openly conducting their activities via facebook. Go to facebook and type Kashmir in groups, and you will see what I mean.

One very misunderstood aspect about the Kashmiri population is that first and foremost it is young, educated and very tech savvy. They know how far they can reach thanks to their ability to connect with people on facebook, and young western tourists posting online about the realities that they witnessed while visiting what was once considered “Shangri-La.” The young people leading these efforts are not aligned with any of the separatist movements or militant outfits. They are a youth population who grew up under the AFSPA and PSA, and are tired of the daily fear. In actuality, young Kashmiri’s probably would even choose to stay with India if given a choice, and a promise that the more than 500,000 military and paramilitary forces (a modest estimate) who have occupied the Valley of Kashmir, one of three parts on the Indian side of the Line of Control, for the better part of 60 years would finally leave the cities and villages.

If you listen to hardliners in the Indian Government, they talk of militants and terrorists when describing the protesters. From time to time, there are terrorists and militants in IAJK, but they are from Pakistan. Unfortunately, when these militants do attack an outpost, the response typically falls on the Kashmiri people, hence the reason for the protests. Additionally, there are also slogans and chants against the militants, and more importantly Pakistan, calling for non-violence, and to stop coming across the border. Though the overwhelming majority are Muslims who organize the protests, it must be noted that young Hindu’s tired of the violence of the military against the general population also are highly visible participants.

Last summer in Srinagar, thousands of people from all the corners of the Indian-administered Kashmir valley marched by various roads towards Lal Chowk, the city center. The year of mass protests in Kashmir passed away to the wintry Himalayan snow with more than 115 young boys and a few women, killed by Indian forces with the full cooperation of the local police. An unfortunate reality that I am sure will inspire the protesters this summer if their facebook pages are any indication.

Agree or not with the premise of the protests, or the demands there can be no argument about the nature of the protests. I too believe a lot of the assumptions of what the protests will achieve are naïve. India and Pakistan in the end will make the final decision of what will happen with this disputed region and the quality of life the people who live there will reside. However, the need for the same scrutiny that our media continues to grant the people in the Middle East needs to happen. One of the leaders and organizers describes himself on his facebook page as,” Moderate, Almost liberal. Conservatives make good terrorists.”

With the death of terrorist leader, and some feel the mastermind behind the Mumbai Attacks, Ilyas Kashmiri, Kashmiri’s have peace of mind that one less terrorist that has terrorized their lives is gone. I am sure his death in many ways was a sigh of relief for many throughout the Valley. His terror outfit has terrorized the people of Kashmir both directly, and indirectly via the Indian Militaries typical response. If so, it will be very difficult for media outlets to continue to leave out insinuations that violence that takes place during these protests are perpetrated by the protesters themselves. If that happens, then hopefully the rest of the western world will finally take notice of what has occurred in Kashmir prior to the Arab Spring.

Nuclear Weapons Make for Strange Bed Fellows

In 1998, the then US President Bill Clinton declared South Asia as “the most dangerous region on the planet.” A declaration now appearing much closer to the truth than what then was considered a boisterous claim due to the continued turmoil in the Middle East and rise of Islamic extremism at the time. Seven years ago while I was attending a symposium in The Hague back in 2004, UPI Editor-in-Chief Emeritus Mr. Martin Walker stated that, “the world will see a nuclear war in the next 20 years between India and China.” During that time, I was a Northeast Asian specialist, particularly focused on historical reconciliation of the region, and non-proliferation of the Korean Peninsula. Two years later, I found myself working from the very heart of the Kashmir Issue, and gaining a clear understanding of why Mr. Walker and President Clinton held such a strong opinion about China v India, and not India v Pakistan. It’s time the rest of the world realizes the importance that there are three nuclear-armed states in one region, with the high potential for a forth should Iran fulfill their goal of becoming a nuclear state.

The schizophrenic relationship between India and Pakistan of course is well known, and the longest current conflict on the planet. They have fought four wars and threatened each other with nuclear weapons. Moreover, India and Pakistan have yet to restart the peace process, and deal with the Kashmir Issue with the political will necessitated in order to bring the conflict to its rightful conclusion. However, the “unrecognized” players in the region, China and Iran, have made for strange bedfellows for both India and Pakistan. Whether it be China v India both economically and militarily, or Iran v Pakistan mainly due to sectarian issues, you can find conflict between at least two of the parties on any given day.

The alliance between Pakistan and China has reached its zenith. According to US intelligence analysts China views “an attack on Pakistan, as an attack on China.” This was confirmed to me while speaking on a panel in 2008 with then Pakistani Ambassador to the US Mahmoud Ali Durrani. Amb. Durrani told me that “Pakistan in the long term views its relationship with China much more important than relations with the US given the regional proximity and conflict with India.” At the time, China was a player in the Kashmir dispute, though for the most part a minority party. However, military and intelligence exchanges are now a regular occurrence, and a major reason for concern in the US Government. Following the killing of Osama Bin Laden, the Chinese Government felt so comfortable that it asked Pakistan for the remains of the so-called “stealth” helicopter destroyed during the midnight raid. This for some people came as a surprise, and has raised suspicions on how much information regarding the chopper was shared between the allies. However, what has occurred the past week regarding security relations between Pakistan and China following Yusuf Raza Gilani’s visit to China, reveals something greater than originally envisioned by anyone.

The recently renewed security ties between Pakistan and China and the sale of 50 fighter jets, submarines and other naval technological transfers is viewed by security officials in Washington as “Pakistan’s rebuke of the US invading its sovereignty and kept in the dark about the Bin Laden raid.” Additionally, Pakistan is considering granting China not only access to the Arabian Sea, but naval bases on the Pakistani coastline, This will drastically increase Chinese presence in the region, as well as guarantee safe passage of their goods and energy supplies to an from Iran and Pakistan. Moreover this will permit China greater access to the Indian Ocean with newly minted frigates, subs and aircraft carriers, an issue officials in New Delhi already find themselves fretting over.

On the other side, you have India’s relationship with both Iran and the United States. Yes, the United States AND Iran. Given US presence in Afghanistan, “security agreements” with Pakistan, and leading the fight against a possible nuclear Iran, the irony could not be any greater. More surprisingly, the speed of increased ties between India and the US over the past five years on security related issues has caught many analysts by surprise. First, there is the controversial nuclear deal the US entered with India, ultimately forgiving India of disregarding the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and welcoming New Delhi as a part of the nuclear club. A source involved with the negotiations at the State Department for the then Bush Administration told me at the time that, “there is a push to get this deal done in order to send a signal to Tehran, Beijing and Islamabad that the US has not only an ally in the region, but an ally with a hardened million man army and cutting edge nuclear technology.” However, just this week I spoke with the same source who requested anonymity due to work with the current administration at different agency involving South Asian security issues said, “in no way could we have predicted the speed and scale in which the relationship between India and the US, or Pakistan and China, as well as India and Iran, would escalate in the way it has. At least in the end all sides will check each other on the nuclear front.” That without a doubt is an incredible hedge given the fact the heart of the conflict between all states involved rests on two issues: energy and more importantly, water.

You see, the fight over the disputed Kashmir region has very little to do with Mahatma Ghandi, Mohammad Jinnah or Jawaharlal Nehru. It has very little to do with a Muslim majority in the Kashmir Valley of India or Hindu Jammu. It has even less to do with the disputed Amaranth Shrine that grabbed headlines a few years back thanks to overzealous Indian BJP hardliners. It has to do with water that flows in China, Pakistan and India providing hydroelectric power for close to a billion people, and access to drinking water for close to 3 billion people in the Siachen Glacier region.

UCLA Prof. Stanley Wolpert who wrote “A River Runs Through It…Kashmir” originally brought the realization to US Law Makers back in 2008 at a conference on Capital Hill. “Without question water is the most important commodity on the planet today, and the two quickest rising powers who also house the worlds two largest populations are seeking to stake their claims on the largest regional source, and will do so at any an all cost possible, including war. If your people do not have access to drinking water, then does war and nuclear fallout really mean that much to you at that point?” He went on to say, “Of course, you are not hearing of this in the international media and security reports, I mean water just isn’t a sexy issue like oil and religion…” His analysis was quite grim, but it does have a point.

As I look back to my days in Den Haag and learning about the world’s most dangerous hot spots from intelligence officials, UN Representatives and media elites such as Martin Walker, I never could have imagined how much I would become acutely aware and understand his grim 20-year assessment of China, India, Iran and Pakistan first hand. More importantly, his view of the global landscape and the importance South Asia would come to the forefront at the rate of speed seven years later. Then again, nuclear weapons do make for strange bedfellows.

The real Pakistan US Conundrum

The answers surrounding the conundrum of not just where, but who continues to hide senior Al Qaeda members more than likely reside in a different Pakistani border region, the Indian border; essentially Kashmir. The relationship of militant groups such as Lashkar e Taiba (LeT), Harakat ul-Mujahideen (HUM), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and a host of other militant groups which operate in Pakistani Occupied Kashmir (PoK), have a long standing history of cooperation and training dating back to the 1980’s. Beginning with the invasion of Afghanistan where PoK organizations continue to provide sanctuary, transportation and manpower from their base camps in the basically unmonitored border region. Due to longstanding relations with the Pakistani authority who views these groups as an ally against the Indian threat, if not an outright colleague who continues to receive funding to carry on a “bleed India” campaign, military assistance, unfettered movement and safe passage in the region continues to this day. The odd questions is, why has this continued since 2002, and why are the Pakistani’s not the only regional player against any US presence in the region?

Due to growing economic ties with India, and the continued “security” relationship with Pakistan, the USG finds itself in a precarious situation on the sub-continent. India and Pakistan have insisted the US refrain from conducting military and intelligence operations in the Kashmir region. Surprisingly, India of all countries, vehemently protested when President Obama initially included Kashmir in the portfolio of the late Ambassador Richard Holbrook. Unfortunately, the US was forced to continue the focus on the Northern Territories and SWAT, and take a hands-off approach in PoK, despite most intelligence and media reports of the PoK based groups and Al-Qaeda relationship. If you were Al Qaeda, who have close ties with PoK based groups spanning over two decades, why not seek sanctuary in the one area US forces are continually prevented from pursuing your whereabouts?

The main rub on the whole situation rests in the continued monetary, military and intelligence assistance the PoK militants receive from both the ISI and Pakistani military. This is not to assume that the relationship between the militant organizations and the Pakistani authorities are conducted at the senior level. A fundamental reason why very little will be found in any investigation with regards to who knew Osama bin Laden was in Abattobad, is the simple fact they did not know. ISI and military personnel, who sustain this close relationship, view their relationship with the militants more important to Pakistan than the US-Pakistan relationship due to the conflict with India. Moreover, those individuals more than likely did not know that the person staying in the house was Osama Bin Laden, but a special “Guest” of the militant hiding him out, and asked his government insiders to just “not ask questions” with regards to the identity of the “Guest.” Then again, it would be insulting if they did…

In 2008, I spent a month in Srinagar, Kashmir, India, and more importantly time with All Parties Hurryiet Conference Senior Leader Syed Ali Geelani. He spoke in detail of the training camps during the 1980’s in Pakistan, where young Kashmiri fighters would cross into Pakistan and receive training by the ISI, and the groups active in Afghanistan. Additionally, he acknowledged that presently focus has gone from fighting India, to fighting Jihad started by the United States with the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. Mr. Geelani acknowledged that some funding from the military and intelligence services has seen an annual decrease, however the logistical and emotional support remained, especially with regards to and from Afghanistan. This maintains the quid pro quo relationship between Al Qaeda and the PoK based organizations. Groups such as LeT and JeM provide sanctuary and inside intelligence via their government connections. In return, Al Qaeda provides financial assistance via fundraising avenues and training. Examples of the training signatures are the Mumbai attacks and the London bombings, both of which were extremely well coordinated and affective. Now, skeptics might point to Mumbai and assume that since it was LeT that it does not suggest an Al Qaeda element, until you mention the Jewish Center that was also a target. Not a common calling card for an organization presumably hitting India due to injustices taking place inside IoK. Once again, everyone knows where the plans were hatched, unfortunately India and Pakistan respectively want to keep everything related to the Kashmir region in house, regardless of the detriment it brings to their own internal security, let alone putting the rest of the world at risk.

India and Pakistan remain mired in a 60 year Cold War to their own detriment both in economics and security. Both sides vehemently are against third party intervention due to the nature of activities both India and Pakistan have forced the people of Kashmir to endure. More importantly, the majority of annual US military monetary appropriations find their way to funding operations on the border with India rather than the SWAT Valley and Northern territories, which from Pakistan’s point of view does not serve their “long-term interests.” However, in this case, the Pakistani relationship with militancy on the Indian border as a proxy force resulted in the ability to conceal the world’s public enemy number one. Worst of all, despite the best of intentions the ISI and military have with maintaining and fostering these groups, the price in political capital and public embarrassment once full disclosure is realized about the relationship between militants and the Pakistani authority, and the militants and Al Qaeda could cause a collapse of the system as a whole.

Pakistan remains known as a safe haven for some of the worlds most dangerous groups and leaders. This was made possible given the relationship with militant groups who claim the Kashmir Issue as their primary focus. In Mr. Geelani’s view, the situation in Afghanistan has not only given way to, “perfect militant training conditions”, additionally PoK based militants are able to exploit this relationship with the military and ISI by granting safe passage and aid in assisting the Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters to move without question in the border region. Following the killing of Bin Laden and his proximity to the heart of military and ISI training, there was no question in why he was there, and who was behind it.

My own international reality

I have not posted in over a year due to personal conflicts regarding the Kashmir issue, and the retribution that the state of India has laid on me due to my work of attempting to mediate the conflict. That being said, the events taking place in Japan touch my home in the most personal of ways.

My wife is from Tokyo. Her mothers family is from the area of Iwagi in Iwate Prefecture. It was believed up until last night that she had lost her grandmother who is 93 yrs. old and suffering severely from alzheimer's disease. She was found alive with other elderly that someone had the ability to get them out of the tsunami area. Her family has owned the rice fields for centuries as part of their samurai legacy. That is all gone now. The fields were destroyed, and the farmers who raised some of the best rice in Japan were washed away along with it. Her aunts, uncles and cousins who lived there narrowly escaped the tsunami and made it to higher ground, but everything they had is now gone as well. Oddly enough, the ancestral home stands exactly where the tsunami stopped. Knowing the history of tsunami's in the area my wife said it's no surprise that the home was built in the one area that was considered to be "safe". However, it was with a heavy heart that many of my wifes childhood memories of going to Ohama Beach as a child were lost in the rushing wave of destruction. We are glad that they are now safe from the tsunami, but the new reality with regards to the four reactors added a whole new dimension (during writing a 6.2 earthquake has occurred close to Mt. Fuji, which is a whole different fear.

My wife and I are planning on leaving for Tokyo on Friday. This trip was planned more than six weeks ago, so this was not a spur of the moment rash decision on our part. That being said, we want to be with her family. We understand the risks that come with going to the area, both from the nuclear meltdown possibility and the possibility of another major quake. We have spoken with her parents and they are not of too much concern given the reports that they are receiving. They live in the town of Hachioji which is a suburb in the Northwest section of Tokyo. There are rolling blackouts from 6pm to 10pm currently, and will more than likely be the same when we arrive on Saturday.

I know that many of you more than likely do not agree with the idea of heading to an area where so many issues are taking place. This is who we are and how we feel about our loved ones who are caught in the madness. If we in anyway believed we would be a burden or in the way, we would not go. I am experienced in disaster relief and coordination, especially regarding earthquakes, due to my involvement in the coordination of relief efforts in the Kashmir earthquake of 2005 .

We stand with our family and our people. I do consider myself to be one of the them. I have lived among the Japanese. I speak their language, I relish living in their cultural necessity of humbleness and calm, and have looked upon them with admiration and respect long before this tragedy occurred. Their strength and ability to adapt are on full display for the world to see and I hope that all of you following the events are taking notice as well. Their honor, perseverance and rational are qualities that all of us should aspire to attain. Lord knows the country that I hail from has put on full display for the world the opposite when a tragedy occurs. I will continue to update on the tragedy, as well as other events.

In closing, it is amazing how such a tragedy can bring someone back to the world that I had decided to leave. Not just Kashmir mind you, I was a Northeast Asian specialist long before my involvement in the Kashmir dispute. However, a renewed sense of purpose in this world has reemerged and I hope that anyone who feels they are lost can look to the most downtrodden and desperate and realize that we all must strive to full fill our destiny within this world to make it better.

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"Kashmir Issue: Centrality of Kashmiris’ rights" By Idrisa Pandit

August 2008, six million people are crippled in all ten districts of Kashmir valley, bringing life to a complete standstill and holding more than six million people hostage. This situation was not a curfew because curfew has some limits and periods of relaxation. This enforced imprisonment of young, old, sick and dying was more than a curfew. There were no ambulances on the road and perhaps for the first time no newspapers published because of stringent restrictions on the movement of journalists, and complete shut down of TV/cable channels. Such situations are not new for Kashmir. What was new was the severity and intensity of this living prison. I happened to be part of this siege along with my children and experienced first hand what for everyday Kashmiris is normal. Upon returning to Canada, I reported to my friends and colleagues what we had gone through, What I got in return were looks of absolute bewilderment, wondering if I was cooking up all these lies. They had seen nothing mentioned in the mainstream media, there were no reports anywhere.
Such is the sordid tale of Kashmir’s two decade black out from the world. It is not that the six million people of Kashmir are not newsworthy. It has all of man bites a dog journalistic elements to it, what it lacks is, approval of the powers to be to make it a story that every news outlet wants to tell. Prior to the clamp down, millions of Kashmiris took to the streets in an act of peaceful civil disobedience, asking for restoration of their honour and dignity, seeking freedom—freedom to possess the basic human right of living life with dignity and honour. The slogans of Azadi in the streets of Kashmir are not political statements in my mind, they are a human statement that reminds their fellow brethren in the world that there are millions of Kashmiris who in this 21st century are deprived of their basic right to live in freedom, seek medical care for their sick, bury their dead with dignity, guard the modesty of their women, provide a sembelance of peace in the lives of their children, give their elderly a life of ease towards their end, grant education to their youngsters, cultivate their lands and pick their fruit form the orchards without being harassed and molested, take a journey without being questioned and detained, be considered as decent humans and not demons. Sixty people were left dead during these unprecedented protests, many more injured, adding to the many thousands who have gone before in the struggle for seeking human dignity. All what Amnesty International 2009 report says about the situation is the following:
“Between June and August, central security forces shot and killed at least 40 people who defied curfew restrictions. The curfew had been imposed during demonstrations and counter-demonstrations over a proposal to transfer forest land to the Amarnath Shrine Board.
Impunity continued for past offences including enforced disappearances of thousands of people during the armed conflict in Kashmir since 1989.” (Amnesty InternationalRreport, 2009)

Even Amnesty squarely blams the victims as being the violators, they got shot because they defied the curfew.

Violence is what Kashmiris have lived with everyday of their lives for the last twenty years. This violence has left indelible marks on the psyche of Kashmiris and done long term damage as is well documented by a research study done by independent researchers for Medecins. In their findings the authors, all Europeans, found through their extensive interviews with 510 people in two districts (30 villages) Kashmir, that
“The civilian population in Kashmir is exposed to high levels of violence, as demonstrated by the high frequency of deliberate events as detention, hostage, and torture. The reported violence may result in substantial health, including mental health problems.” (deJOng et.al. 2008)
They found that people had
“frequent direct confrontations with violence since the start of conflict, including exposure to crossfire (85.7%), round up raids (82.7%), the witnessing of torture (66.9%), rape (13.3%), and self-experience of forced labour (33.7%), arrests/kidnapping (16.9%), torture (12.9%), and sexual violence (11.6%). Males reported more confrontations with violence than females, and had an increased likelihood of having directly experienced physical/mental maltreatment (OR 3.9, CI: 2.7-5.7), violation of their modesty (OR 3.6, CI: 1.9-6.8) and injury…” (dejong 2008, p.1)
I am not a politician, political scientist or a historian. I am a humanitiarian and a Kahsmiri. Instead of theorizing about the issue of Kashmri, I would like to speak to you form my heart, sharing with you what I witnessed first hand in 1992 and almost every summer thereafter.
While Kashmir is reeling under the recent protests over violation of honour of two women Neelofar Jan and Aasiya Jan of Shopian, let me remind you that this is neither new nor an aberration. I can never forget the grave violation of ten women of Syed Checkpora in Shopian in 1992. A copy of the complaint No. 71 of 92 lodged by Hussain Malik at the local police station documented the gang rape of ten women including an eleven year old Zaitoon and sixty year old Sayeeda Begum. The doctor’s who examined these women found evidence of violence against these women and documented gang rape. The words of the sixty year old woman, a skinny figure with a wrinkled face, “I was raped by nine soldiers” are forever unforgettable. The same year in April 1992, Wular lake was dyed red in an unforgettable massacre on April 4th, 1992 cordoning off 40 villages around Wular and conducting searches in every home and destroying everything in their path. Three days of military crack down resulted in death, torture and rape. After killing the victims, mostly fishermen and boat people, they were tied with stones and drowned in the lake and others drowned themselves to escape torture. Shaheena Akhter, a fifteen year old, was gang raped, her sister Hajra beaten badly before being raped, fifty year old Hajra who fainted while resisting the soldiers, found herself stark naked when she regained consciousness the next day. The women who were violated were numerous. The oppressors were well known—members of the Dogra regiment of the Indian military, led by Major D.R. Singh. There were witnesses to the dastardly acts who testified, yet nothing happened. Instead these women, the victims were forced to sign statements under duress, vindicating their abusers. While Kashmir was still grieving the victims of Wular, another brutal massacre was carried out in Sopore on Arpil 13th, 1992. Amongst many horrible crimes against men women and children was Aisha, a victim of gang rape and cold blooded murder, wife of a school teacher and a mother of two beautiful children. Her husband who returned his identity card to the Indian administration aptly said, “while India mourns the massacre of Jallainwallah Bagh even after fifty years of their independence, she is creating a Jallainawallah Bagh in every street of Kashmir.”
I could go on recounting many more stories, more horrific acts of violence against innocent women that I saw and documented in Zirmanz, Watlab Ghat, Kehmoosa, Kanipath and Mallangam, Aloosa and Ashtung, but I will stop here. This was eighteen years ago. Fast forward to May of 2009 and we witness the gruesome murder and gang rape of Neelofar and Aasiya Jan. What has changed—NOTHING-- What was done to the perpetrators in 1992 or in 2009—NOTHING. Just as the violators of the recent victims will go scot free, while there will be incidental scapegoats, temporarily detained, transferred or shuffled to silence the protestors, who now have more of a voice with the help of, and tireless efforts of the civil society groups (two of the distinguhsed guests Mr. Navlakha and Prof. Chatterji deserve credit for that). What will also happen and has already happened in the latest case in Shopian is that the victims will be victimized further. The police authorities in Kashmir where there is no rule of law will make sure that the victims are terrorized, silenced and forced into wrong confessions and in the process many of those police personnel will fatten their pockets with bribes. This is a disheartening pattern we have witnessed time and again and there is no one to hold the police authorities accountable. As was the case in the latest investigations, the senior police officers are busy with personal physical training, playing golf on the prestigious golf course built on the ruins of the only city forest in Kashmir. Their ways of investigation are outmoded, their interest in finding the truth nil and is coloured by many different pressures to which they bow down easily. ( J&K Coalition of Civil Society July 2009). How can a force that is supposed to protect the people of Kashmir be allowed to go unaccountable when they commit gross violations and dereliction of their duties. So where is the force that truly protects the interest of the Kashmiris? But then, let us not fool ourselves when a people have no rights, there is not much to protect. But will anything change. Will the practices come to an end? Will rape and torture cease to be used as weapons to tame the Kashmiri population?
None of this will change as long as there are laws in place that protect the armed forces from prosecution and do not hold them accountable for their actions. Only in Kashmir do you find a soldier who has killed, raped or destroyed property being rewarded monetarily as well as professionally. When the incentives are so great, why wouldn’t they use the privileges granted to them for victimizing the Kashmiri population. I remember a couple of years ago when a student on his way to college, boarding a bus was shot and killed and left on the Bouleavrd, the police officer was immediately promoted and heralded for his bravery, for having killed a dangerous insurgent.
These laws were instituted “…in early July 1990 the Kashmir Valley (and in later years Muslim majority districts of Jammu province) was brought under the Disturbed Areas Act. Under the provisions of this act the military has absolute power to search homes, arrest without warrant and shoot even on mere suspicion, The draconian Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, passed in 1958, was also extended to Kashmir, Section 6 of this gives impunity to armed personnel acting in disturbed areas. Even the much touted National Human Rights Commission (1993) bars investigations against armed forces in areas declared as disturbed areas…” (J&K Coalition of Civil Society, 2005)

These laws have resulted in gross violations of human rights

“ in the name of retributive justice, have been/may be used to perpetrate state violence, subvert due process of law, undermine civil liberties, and freedom of the press, eroding rule of law, permitting torture and sexualized violence on those in state custody, criminalizing innocent persons, and, in effect, undermining the safety and security of citizens.
Local realities reflect the use of these laws by the military and paramilitary to control the general population with impunity. These laws authorize soldiers to search, question, raid houses, and detain without charge-sheets. Curfews remain undeclared, permitting security forces to operate without evidencing cause, and enabling repression of civil society without prior warning. These laws blur distinctions between 'military' and 'paramilitary', as evidenced by the enhanced training and authority invested in the CRPF in Kashmir. ( J&K Coalition of Civil Society, July 18, 2009)


Terrror breeds terror: I remember a four year old boy relating to me in his innocent way as to what had happened to his mother who had been attacked by drunken soldiers. He did not know the terminology of rape and violence, what he did know is that what happened was a hate filled incident and that his mother was a victim of hate. I wondered what impact this incident would have on the mind of this young child, how would he process his anger and what would he do if he decided to avenge his mother’s rape. I have the same question when I look into the eyes of all the orphans of Kashmir that have witnessed violence and are traumatized. What about this generation that has grown in violence and has known violence as the norm? I have been amazed at the resilience of the younger generation of Kashmir, the children of the uprising. They have learned, to a large degree to channel their pain and find ways of making peace within themselves. This sentiment is well summarized by Malik Sajad in an interview to a reporter of the Washington Post<

"For the young generation, it's our moment now," said Malik Sajad, a 20-year-old political cartoonist for the Greater Kashmir newspaper who was raised during the war. "Nobody here saw a childhood. We were always kept indoors. But we don't believe that the solution is in the gun. Now we want to show the world that Kashmiris deserve peace." (Watts, 2008)

This new way of thinking has confounded many including the intelligenisa in India as well as others who benefitted from keeping the hatred and war mongering alive in the hearts of Kashmiris and superificially aided them in one way or another. The challenge posed by peaceful demonstrations is baffling the Indian authorities. They know how to shoot at sight but they are not trained to suppress dissent by millions on the streets of Kashmir without a gun, without even stones. The pent up rage which erupted like a volcano over the Amarnath Shrine Board land transfer, was an immediate and spontaneous reaction to all the injustices that Kashmiris have endured for two decades from mass disappearances, to deaths, torture and rape. Those who thrive on portraying everything as a communal protest could not justify their logic, Kashmiris in their true spirit of hospitality greeted, housed, fed and guided the pilgrims and not one among half a million of them was hurt or attacked, while the Indian army was engaged in killing innocent Kashmiris in the streets. As a mother with a very sick child in the hospital, I myself switnessed many Indian tourists and pilgrims who were ill, being cared for by the Muslims of Kashmir, being treated as special guests. Patients and their caregivers had no food and medicine while caught in a hospital of Kashmir during the curfew. Strangers who would come through back alleys and marshes, avoiding the gaze of the military, fed the Hindu pilgrims and their patients and somehow arranged for whatever medications they could for them. At a time when there were no medical supplies, doctors and volunteers made sure that the Indian visitors had what they needed. Such hospitality and tolerance always gets overlooked and all we read about is the hatred. Unfortunately even the Amnesty report of 2009 portrays the summer 2008 mass uprising of Kashmir as communal protests, which they were not in Kashmir.

During July and August, communal protests in Jammu and Kashmir rose to levels unseen in recent years and erupted into violence on several occasions. Police used excessive force to deal with the violence and shot dead more than 60 people. (Amnesty International, 2009)

There were indeed attacks on Kashmiris who became victims of the rage of communal interests in Jammu. Some Kashmiris were burnt alive, a driver killed and many others attacked. In Jammu, these hate filled interest groups created a blockade of the only highway, pharmaceutical companies refused to send medications to Kashmir and fruit, which is the main cash crop of Kashmiris, bound for the plains, was left to rot in trucks carrying them resulting in millions of dollars worth of damage to the economy. This was a time when Kashmiris realized that self-reliance is something they had traded for a while by becoming dependent on everything coming from the plains.

The dilemma the Indian administration was faced with during the peaceful mass protests was novel. What do you do when people demand freedom of expression of their will in the true spirit of non-violence. How do you crush a mass resistance movement, mostly led by the youth of Kashmir, the children of war, expressing their resentment in a peaceful way. The answer came very quickly from the authorities who clamped an unprecedented curfew and choked the population. What the authorities did not realize then, and fail to realize now, is that you can delay deliverance of justice or suppress the will of people, but never wipe it out of their psyche. Alienation and brutalization of Kashmiris will never endear them to India or Pakistan. No amount of money showered upon the residents of Kashmir will buy their hearts and minds. The people of Kashmir deserve the right of self determination, a basic human right. Peace will come to Kashmir, God Willing, for that though, centrality of Kashmiris basic rights is essential. With rights also come responsibilities and to be able to discharge these responsibilities Kashmiris will need to do some preparation and homework.

The only way to resolve any conflict is to understand the root cause of a conflict, origins of violence, and how can peace and stability be built after violence has occurred and how to sustain reconciliation among people who have been at odds with each other for so long. (Rossi, 2003)

Given what I described to you so far, it should be very easy for anyone to understand that Kashmir is a conflict zone, one where there are gross violation of basic human right have occurred and continue to occur. It is not a cultural conflict, a religious conflict or a territorial conflict. It is a conflict that is simply one of denial of people’s right to self determination, a right guaranteed to the people of Kashmir by the United Nations and agreed to by both India and Pakistan. It gives people of Kashmir the ultimate authority to decide their political fate. It is a far simpler conflict to resolve than conflicts that have deep rooted religious or ethnic roots. The resolution of Kashmir quagmire calls for a resolute grassroots movement, led by leaders of all sides trained in international relations and conflict resolution, historians, peacemakers, political leaders and experts in social psychology. The mix of political and psycho social is important given the scars that the violence of last twenty years has left on the people of Kashmir.

The next step is to carefully examine the causes of violence, both as a result of terror perpetrated by those fighting for freedom through violent means, as well as state sponsored terrorism. What was the root cause of anger and discontent of those who chose to lead an armed struggle and how justified or balanced was the response?

The crimes committed have to be investigated as well so these crimes are not repeated. One way of moving the process forward could by adopting the model of peace and reconciliation Commissions similar to post apartheid South Africa under the aegis of the United Nations or independent peace activists form all sides of the conflict.




A way forward:
The centrality of Kashmiris’ rights has three aspects. The first and foremost of course is the political aspect of resolving the status of Kashmir according to the wishes of people of all regions and developing a strategy to help support the decision that the people make. The first step towards creating an atmosphere of normalcy would be to end all forms of subjugation and repression, and withdrawal of the large military forces that are a constant reminder that the people of Kashmir are living in an open air prison. Other aspects of political solution will follow when the basics are addressed. Secondly, a socio psychological and economic model needs to be developed, one that works out a strategy for economic survival, a model for accommodation of all people irrespective of their faith, a model for reviving the whole traumatized Kashmiri society psychologically and a model for protection of rights of all minorities in all regions. Thirdly, a faith model one that brings together leaders of all faiths to come to an understanding of peace and reconciliation and promoting these principles in their respective communities; a way to move forward and live in harmony, with respect and understanding.

Enmity and hatred are two evils that will keep the South Asian region always unstable and grand standing and arrogance will only further widen the divide. It will take courageous leadership on all sides, particularly religious leadership to end bloodshed by implementing true understanding of their faiths, one that preserves the sanctity of all living beings. Once we are at peace with ourselves, InshaAllah, peace on earth will prevail.

Prerequisites of peace:

To move forward on the path of peace, Kashmiris need to engage in a process of self-examination and honest introspection. They will have to ask themselves: What is the struggle of Kashmir all about? Is it a religious struggle, a territorial struggle or a struggle for justice? Are we being unfair by biting the hand that feeds us? This, being the most common accusation that I have heard from many in the Indian community, and some factions of the Kashmiri community? Was staying silent and maintaining the status quo better than pouring out on the streets in 1989 and stirring the pot? Many of the previous generation, the generation of my parents might say, yes. They had found a way of life, living as subjects of a state that provided them jobs,naukri, bijli and pani, a semblance of democracy, while making sure that the so called autonomous structure bestowed on them by the Indian constitution, was gradually eroded. They were learning to be Indians, although the Indian polity never accorded them the same privileges as other citizens of the country. The response of the younger generation, the generation of the uprising, however, is different. While the majority of the young people may be ignorant or very little informed about their history, they are the children of struggle, they are the victims of war, they are survivors against all odds, they are not ready to forget the sacrifices of the 100,000 people dead, 8,000 disappeared and thousands of people tortured and rotting in jails. This generation is also not ready to fall into the hands of those that used religion in the past to garner support for their aims. I think they realize that the struggle of Kashmir is a basic one, one of “Azadi”, the meaning of which can vary from that of their elders. They want Azadi, freedom of thought, expression, life and liberty. Their Azadi means freedom from fear—fear of being shot at sight for no reason, freedom from fear of being tortured, freedom from rape and molestation. They realize that their Azadi, will not come from the skies, they are willing to die for it. And here an important question to address is: Will these young people lose their sense of justice and fairness if they were to get ther Azadi? Will they abuse the freedom they fought so hard for. What measure are in place for them to channel their anger and frustration?

This self-examination will also need Kashmiris to look back and own the mistakes of the past—mistakes made by those that misused religion, while knowing little about their faith, those that allowed themselves to be exploited by the oppressors, those that maltreated minorities and women, those that understood very little about the multifaith nature of the Kashmiri community, a beacon in the subcontinent that is often plagued with communal hatred.
While Kashmir is not a religious struggle, I would like to submit that faith can inform people in very powerful ways. In today’s world religion is looked upon with absolute disfavour. In fact, it is often blamed for all ills of the world today. Unfortunately given the Isalmophobic atmosphere that we are in today and the pos 9/11 politics, Islam gets a particulary bad rap. However, as a humble student of different faith traditions, I have yet to encounter a faith that breeds hatred. In my twenty years of bridge building work as part of various multifaith and multicultural groups, I have learned that no religion promotes hate for one another. What we fail to always do is to make that distinction between the faith and those who claim to be the followers of that faith., and I can speak particulary about Islam and Muslims. Faith based approach to peace building is an idea that is rapidly gaining favour in the global community and there are many successful experiments of reconciliation that are faith based which can be studied to gain guidance.
The Muslims of Kashmir are a faithful people and their faith can guide them through a process of reconciliation just as faith guided the people of South Africa. The centrality of Kashmiris’ rights is closely tied to their faith and helping them use their faith with an open mind, devoid of stereotypes, prejudices and biases under the guidance and leadership of those who understand the principles of Islam rooted in justice and peace.

Islam is a way of life that is rooted in peace and peace building, not the distorted version of propounders of Islam who use Islam to suit their own needs through misinterpretation or those others whose mission is to defame Islam and Muslims. I am sure by now you are all beginning to wonder who this extremist is amongst you. Well all Iam asking for is to allow people to use a framework that they can relate to work towards peace and the best one, in my mind for Kashmiri Muslims is their faith. I firmly believe that the Muslims of Kashmir can reject the philosophy of hate and extremism that many adopted in the early years of the insurgency, and find a way out in their faith to reconcile and forgive, by following the principles of justice and reconciliation laid out in the Quran living with others with openness, respect and accommodation. They can with boldness choose in the true Islamic spirit to live the commandment of the Quran

O you who believe, be persistently firm in justice, witnesses for Allah even if it be against yourselves or parents and relatives…. Al-Quran S.4 v.135.

O you who believe, be persistently standing firm for Allah, witnesses in justice, and do not let the hatred of people prevent you form being just… Al-Quran S5: v.8
If the oppressed Kashmiri Muslims of today understand truly the meaning of this Quranic injunction, they will never become oppressors themselves, a fear that many have.
The first step in reconciliation according to Islam is forgiveness, not retribution, While in Islam you do not turn the other cheek, the reward for forgiving your enemy, one that has hurt you and harmed you is with God alone
The recompense for an evil is an evil like thereof; but whosoever forgives and makes reconciliation, his reward is with Allah. Verily, he likes not the oppressors Al-Quran 42:40

As long as this movement of peace is rooted in the principles of truth, justice, Mercy and forgiveness as prescribed by the Quran for the Muslims, peace will automatically follow. Once this principle of justice is adhered to and implemented, all hatred will melt away and the process of moving forward will begin.
This process of using faith and reconciliation does not have to be exclusive to Muslims alone. Other faith communities can have their own models as well, but I am no one to dictate tothem. This process of learning will involve diverse segments of Kashmiri with focus on the very young, one’s that are most affected by this conflict. I assist a lot of refugees who come from most dire circumstances from all conflict zones of earth—Somalia, the Balkans,Burma, Iraq and Afghanistan to Canada. What I have noticed is that these refugees live in absolute peace in Canada, once they are removed from the atmosphere of animosity. However, the trauma is deep and left untreated can take various unhealthy forms of expression, especially in children. Processing the trauma and attending to their psycho-social needs of Kashmiri population can wait no longer. The figures are alarming, there is a psycho-social crises that demands attention from all who care for human values. From the MSF study we learn that every Kashmiri is affected by trauma and they have not yet found way to process this trauma which can rise its ugly head in various forms of depression, revenge and retribution. We need to address the psycho social along with the political. The children of Kashmir need an outlet for their misery, their anger and their frustration. They have to know that there is a possibility to live without fear and intimidation.
One of the models of faith and reconciliation is the Interfaith Mediation Centre of Kaduna, Nigeria, lead by a pastor and an Imam, one time bitter enemies who renounced violence and vowed to bring their community together in peace using the faith based model. I have had the good fortune of meeting these remarkable men. ( I recommend the film (Pastor and the Imam) to anyone who has not seen already.) Another option to consider would be the the model of peace and reconciliation commission of NelsonMandela.

Leadership:
Reevaluation of leadership is another prerequisite. Moving away form hereditary leadership and priesthood (both clearly discouraged in Islam), will free the minds of people and allow those that truly represent the masses and understand them based on their commitment to peace and justice to step forward. Dominant personalities must be replaced by a common ideology of reuniting the people of Kashmir for the purpose of striving for justice. Kashmir has to pave way for new leaders to emerge, leaders that truly understand the common cause of freedom form oppression, of uniting people under only one banner of reclaiming the dignity and respect of Kashmiris in a nonviolent manner. These leaders will have to sacrifice something that current leaders are used to, namely seeking protection from the forces that they are fighting against. The old leadership while making room for new blood, will hopefully share their collective wisdom with the new one’s and the young leaders have to honour the sacrifices of their elders and forgive their shortcomings. Such courageous young leaders will need guidance from others—intellectuals, historians, peace activists and others that have well understood the struggle in the path of liberation of hearts and minds. While there are many in the Kashmiri society and in the Pakistani and Indian civil society that can offer their wisdom and guidance, I suggest that in addition, Kashmiri leaders seek the guidance and intervention of “the Elders”, “a group of eminent global leaders, brought together by Nelson Mandela, who offer their collective influence and experience to support peace building, help address major causes of human suffering and promote shared interests of humanity” These guides including President Carter, Desmond Tutu, Nelson Mandela, Ella Bhat, Mohammed Yunus, to name a few, would be the best to help lead peace and reconciliation between Kashmir’s young leadership and the Governments of India and Pakistan. Such eminent leaders who have no vested interests other than peace building can help the whole region of subcontinent to reclaim peace with justice.

Enough blood has been shed in Kashmir, both India and Pakistan have spent enormous resources on armaments and maintaining their huge defence budgets, money that could be well spent on the betterment of the poor and hungry in their countries. Both countries have realized that there is no military solution to the Kashmir imbroglio, so why not give true peace a chance. Kashmiris will not look small by being magnanimous. Forgiving their oppressors and perpetrators of injustice and getting rid of hatred and vendetta that can consume and destroy will be a healthy start for a new society, a new beginning, a new dawn. Once this groundwork is laid hopefully with the help of the Elders, a vote to express their desire to decide their destiny can be held and both India and Pakistan and rest of the world must at that point honour the decision of the people of Jammu and Kashmir and then aid them in the process of rebuilding their lives with dignity.

Is this just a dream? Perhaps, I do pray that it will in some form become a reality that frees my people from misery, subjugation, pain and suffering, InshaAllah.

I believe peace is possible if all parties are willing to take bold necessary steps the most important of which is promoting a free and fair civil discourse in all sections of the Kashmir society bringing together, civil society members, political scientists, thinkers, religious leaders and political leaders of all inclinations. Kashmiris who have no recent history of governance will have to get together and define their struggle through healthy debate and discussion. Empty slogans of Azadi will only breed frustration and no tangible results, Intimidation, mistrust, threats and sheer violence agsinst those who dare to speak out has silenced many in Kashmir that could have begun this discourse a long time ago. Freedom of expression of diverse opinions and narratives is a healthy beginning to root out hatred.
Governments and those that claim to be self appointed guardians of one kind or another have to develop a tolerance for hearing all voices, even the one’s that may not be to their liking in a non-judgemental way to pave way for moving beyond tolerance to understanding.
I have faith in the youth of Kashmir, especially those that are the children of the uprising--- one’s in Kashmir and in diaspora. Bridge building can happen and has to happen for a peaceful united Kashmir where ethnic and religious hatred will have no place, where there will be no imposition of any kind—religious, social or cultural--A united Kashmir which will truly show the world that peace is possible through forgiveness and reconciliation. It needs courage and bold leadership from all sides and support of those that care for peace in the world.
References
de Jong, Kaz, Nathan Ford, Saskia van de Kam, Kamalini Lokuge, Silke Fromm, Renate van Galen, Brigg Reilley, and Rolf Kleber. "Conflict in the Indian Kashmir Valley I: exposure to violence.(Research). ." Conflict and Health. 2.10 (Oct 14, 2008): 10. Academic OneFile. Gale. WATERLOO PUBLIC LIBRARY (CELPLO) (ON).

J&K Coalition of Civil Society, State Public Commision on Human Rights, Srinagar, Coalition of Civil Society, Amira Kadal, Bund, Srinagar, 2005.

J&K Coalition of Civil Society, Report on the Shopian rape incident, July 2009.
Rossi, John Allen. “Teachign about international conflict and peacemaking at th grassroots level” The Social Studies, 94(4), July –August 2003)

Watts, Emily “Peaceful protest in Kashmir alter equation for India: Tough response criticized as outmoded”, Washignton Post, Aug.28, 2008.